When the Patriots (8-4) travel to face the Bills (7-4) to close out Week 13 in the NFL on “Monday Night Football” (8:15 pm ET, ESPN, ESPN2), they will look to keep building. his newfound old-school status as the possible No. 1 seed in the AFC playoff photo. The Patriots will look forward to a big road win to take control of the division down the stretch, while the Bills would like to head for a repeat in the East.
There is pressure on MVP candidate Josh Allen to duel first-round rookie Mac Jones at quarterback. Bill Belichick will create a high degree of difficulty with his defense, while Jones will enter a hostile environment with the intrigues of Sean McDermott and Leslie Frazer against him.
It feels like a classic, tight and low game in December between two bitter rivals from the AFC East with a lot on the line.
Here you will find everything you need to know about betting on Patriots vs. Bills in Week 13, including updated odds, trends and our prediction for “Monday Night Football.”
Odds of Patriots vs. Bills for Monday Night Football
- Propagation: Bevils by 2.5
- Below: 41
- Money line: Patriots +122, Notes -144
The Bills have been rounding up the basic home favorites against their red-hot division rivals. The Patriots have been building offensive momentum to get closer to the Bills’ level, but the overall low is tied to two elite defenses at each level.
(Betting Odds by FanDuel Sportsbook)
Patriots vs. Bills all-time series
The Patriots have a dominant 76-45-1 lead tied to the Bill Belichick era. The Bills swept the meetings last season. Before that, the Patriots had won seven in a row since 2016. Before, the Patriots had won 9 of 11. The Bills hope the tide will stay turned for a while.
Three trends to know
—59 percent of spread bettors are on the local Bills’ side, given the low number and essential equivalent pick-’em play.
– Just over 50 percent of spread bettors like the slight over in the game given how low it is for two good teams with a good amount of offensive playmakers.
—The Patriots are 7-3 against the spread and 7-3 outright in their last 10 games. The total was exceeded in six of those games. The Bills are 6-3-1 against differential in the last 10 games to back up their solid 7-3 SU record. Half of those games are over.
Three things to see
What will be the “one thing” about the Patriots? take away from the Bills?
New England should note that Allen has relied heavily on wide receiver Stefon Diggs and tight-knit Dawson Knox when things have been working better for his offense lately. They must guard against the deep ball and hope cornerback JC Jackson can contain Diggs while using a combination of seven Knox covers. The Patriots should want to challenge the Bills to run often with Allen and others to win.
How will any Tre’Davious White affect the Bills’ defense?
The Patriots will be on the lookout for attacking downfield the cornerback spot vacated by White, who misses his first game while out for the season with a torn ACL. Levi Wallace and Taron Johnson have been good complementary cover men, but White is a closed guy. Expect the Patriots to use wide receiver Kendrick Bourne more on the outside to help Jones.
Will the Bills be willing to run much farther to win?
The Bills are looking for trouble to be happy with the pass against Belichick, who has the rush for the pass and the covering men to contain that across the field. In addition to the Allen-designed scrambles, the Bills must commit more to the traditional running game, now led by veteran Matt Breida. The Bills must keep the Patriots honest and allow the big plays to unfold organically outside of the action of the game.
Statistics that matter
96.6. That’s the average rushing yards per game the Bills’ defense gives up, putting them sixth in the NFL heading into Week 13. That also includes two major anomalies, a 143-yard rushing effort by Derrick Henry and a 185 yard beating. by Jonathan Taylor. They have a strong front and active linebackers, which should make the sled tough for Damien Harris and rookie Rhamondre Stevenson.
Patriots vs. Bills Prediction
The Patriots will be confident in their quest to win back the AFC East, but the Bills will come out as the most desperate team at home knowing that wins, period, are needed to secure at least one AFC wild card. Buffalo will match New England’s toughness and Allen will make a few more plays when things break down than Jones.
Bills 23, Patriots 19