Will the Patriots Exceed or Fall Short of Their Projected Win Totals for the 2023 NFL season?

Will the Patriots Exceed or Fall Short of Their Projected Win Totals for the 2023 NFL season?

The New England Patriots from the early 21st century stands as one of the most remarkable in the history of football.

However, those who once sat in awe at the extraordinary achievements of Bill Belichick and the Patriots are now reveling in his downfall and demanding his removal.

We aren’t here to defend Belichick. I have no interest in that. We can say, however, that Belichick ranks among the greatest head coaches in the history of professional sports in North America. And I have no intention of underestimating him.

The Patriots are no longer contenders for the Super Bowl. Any team lacking an elite-level quarterback faces this reality. Nevertheless, this does not mean that there are no potential gains to be made by betting on (or against) this team. Nor does it mean that Belichick and his team won’t significantly influence the outcome of one of the most competitive divisions in football.

Lowest Win Total in Over Two Decades

Bill Belichick, the coach with the most Super Bowl rings in professional football history, has traditionally been unquestioned by NFL fans and bettors. However, with the New England Patriots having experienced their second losing season in three years with an 8-9 record, sportsbooks are now uncertain about the team’s prospects for the upcoming season.

New England Patriots 2023 Odds:

  • Patriots Win Total: 7.5 (Over +100, Under -122)
  • Patriots to Reach the Playoffs: +235
  • Patriots to Win the AFC East:  +750
  • Patriots to Win the Super Bowl: +5500

The most interesting set of New England betting odds is the over-under win total, set by BetMGM and various other sportsbooks at 7.5, with +100 to the over and -122 on the under. Sure, the value can be heightened with a BetMGM Massachusetts bonus code, but this isn’t the intriguing factor. We’re looking at the lowest win total for this historic dynasty since 2001.

In 2001, Belichick and a young quarterback named Tom Brady surpassed those predictions by achieving 11 wins in the regular season while securing the team’s inaugural Super Bowl championship – which would become the first of six.

Since Belichick’s initial year as head coach in 2000, the Patriots have never fallen short of winning at least seven games. Although historical trends favor the Patriots, sportsbooks have assigned +100 odds for New England to surpass 7.5 wins in the upcoming season.

Patriots 2023 Expectations: Why the hate?

Last season, the Patriots faced challenges on offense, which has been extensively discussed. Despite this, their defense performed admirably, allowing the league’s 11th fewest points (347) and nearly securing a playoff spot. However, New England’s concern lies in the fact that a considerable portion of these solid defensive displays occurred against many subpar quarterbacks.

Considering last term’s disappointing 8-9 record of last year and the upcoming season’s schedule, there’s undoubtedly a valid reason and then some to fade the Patriot’s win total over. They have the toughest schedule in the NFL season, with games against the Bills, Dolphins, and Jets in the AFC. And then, outside of the AFC, they’re matched with the Chiefs, Eagles, Cowboys, and the Chargers.


Patriots Win Total 2023: Over or Under?

Winning teams aren’t built on questionable QBs. Jones is facing a challenge as he seeks to recover from a subpar 2022 season, during which he experienced a decline in almost all aspects of his performance.

While there is a chance that he may revive his rookie-year form, there is also a distinct possibility that he will continue to encounter difficulties. Should Jones replicate his performance from the previous season, the Patriots will face obstacles in achieving more than 7.5 wins, despite the enhancements to their defense and the introduction of a new play-caller for their offense.

Mac Jones is poised to progress, and the defense is expected to regain its former dominance, but the team faces significant obstacles. Their biggest challenge lies in having the most formidable schedule in the NFL, which is particularly worrisome considering they already compete in the league’s toughest division.

It’s a brave trend to go against, but the under 7.5 win total will likely hit for the first time in 23 years.

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